Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Canada Votes 2008

Polls Close tonight at 930 pm est, one of the longer polling days in recent memory, and thus none of the ridings have been decided yet. Although this is an overtly political post, as was discussed earlier, politics do have a serious effect on the arts and culture in Canada. Therefore, I thought it would be interesting to make a few predictions tonight about the outcome of the election. Keep in mind, the magic number for a majority government is 155. Here goes:

Conservatives: 132 seats - up from 124 in 2006

Liberals: 70 - down from 103 in 2006

NDP: 53 - up from 29 in 2006

Bloc: 50 - down from 51 in 2006

Green: 2 - up from 0 in 2006

Independent: 1 - same as 2006

As you can see, I think that the Conservatives will retain their minority government. Although their campaign looked very strong in the early stages, Harper did not seem to provide any clear answers or plans regarding the downturn in the economy and this will ultimately hinder him from achieving a majority. You can also see that I think that the Liberals will take a huge beating at the polls this election, losing over 30 ridings, and this has to do with Dion's weak leadership and horrible showings at debates and nearly all press conferences. This corresponds directly with a huge jump in support for the NDP. This may be personal bias here or even just a pipe dream, but I think that the working class virtues, saefty net approach, and strongly environmental platform presented by Layton is going to connect with a lot of voters who will be affected by the upcoming economic downturn (by the way, are we ready to call this a recession yet or what?). The Bloc will remain steady, as they always do, taking a large portion of the Quebec votes, and the Green party will shock a few people and win their first two seats ever. The environment has just become too big of a fad for this party not to win a few seats. Finally, I think that one riding will be won by an independent, seems to be the trend in recent elections.

As for this government, I don't think it will last too long. The upcoming economic problems, our continued presence in Afghanistan, and the failure of Harper to respond quickly to problems will spell doom for this minority government. I see another election happening within a year, year and a half max, and hopefully then an NDP led minority government can return Canada to welfare state that cares for all of its citizens. We, errr, I can only hope.

Check the link below for up to the minute election results.


1 comment:

ah, fuck it said...

my predictions are looking alright so far. looks like i may have undershot on the liberals and overshot on the NDP.

liberals like like they may take in the 85-95 range, meaning the NDP will fall back into the 35-45 range.